The 2004 withdrawal of Vioxx from the global market had a negative effect on the COX-2 class, with a 44% fall in Celebrex sales for osteoarthritis in 2005. However, as patients sought an alternative to the COX-2s, there was positive growth in traditional NSAIDs, non-narcotic analgesics, narcotic analgesics, corticosteroids and HA viscosupplements, leading to a 1.1% increase in total market value.
The osteoarthritis market is forecast to grow steadily, and will reach $7 billion by 2015. Growth comes from expanded use of hyaluronic acids and pipeline products launches. Despite competition from COX-2s such as Prexige and Arcoxia, Pfizer's Celebrex to remain the leading brand until patent expiry in 2014.
After the withdrawal of Vioxx over CV safety fears, Merck was criticized for its heavy marketing campaign. Companies should target their products to specific populations rather than the population as a whole, shift to eSampling and continue to conduct large-scale safety studies.
Synvisc sales will reach $300 million by 2015. Indication expansions in the US and EU, and launch in Japan, will drive sales. Future opportunities in the HA market will come from the development of single injection products. The EU markets show good opportunity for HAs with the highest growth.
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