Osteoarthritis - The COX-2 pipeline collapses

With several recent non-approvable decisions in the osteoarthritis market since 2006, Datamonitor has updated its forecast to account for the effect on the market. We have revised the market outlook over the next 10 years using the latest IMS data. We expect the market to grow steadily, with a CAGR from 2007 to 2017 of 3.2%, to reach sales of nearly $5.5 billion in 2017.

After three years of decline, market sales grew by 0.8% (2006-07) to reach $4 billion in the 7MM in 2007. Driving growth was an increase in sales of COX-2, non-narcotic analgesic and corticosteroid classes. Market sales will reach $5.5 billion by 2017 (3.2% CAGR) boosted by pipeline product launches, particularly NicOx's naproxcinod.

Lessened side effect concern and clever marketing contributed to the rebound in Celebrex sales. Also contributing to Celebrex's reprise was the Japanese launch in June 2007. Celebrex will remain the market leading brand for osteoarthritis treatment until patent expiry in 2014, when more than 70% first year generic erosion is forecast.

Arcoxia (etoricoxib) and Prexige (lumiracoxib) will not launch in the US as previously predicted. The COX-2 pipeline has collapsed with little sign of future promise. This counters the rise in Celebrex and Arcoxia sales, which show that opportunities exist, but at present regulatory requirement generates a large barrier to entry.

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